BRUNCH’s 2018 Oscars preview/predictions

Oscar SZN, folks. It’s time to dive into each of the major categories and make our picks and predictions. Not only did we make selections for nominees we think will win, we also highlighted who/what we think should win and why. In addition, we picked our favorite non-nominee (snubs) in five categories.

Our best friend Randy Havens (“Stranger Things” & “Logan Lucky”) joined to give us his own picks and predictions.

Here’s a rundown of our picks:

BEST PICTURE

  • Call Me By Your Name
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Post
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will win: 

DJ – LADY BIRD

Pete – THE SHAPE OF WATER

Should win: 

DJ – GET OUT

“Get Out” belongs to a genre that doesn’t usually get nominated for Best Picture, but there hasn’t been a movie as captivating or with the societal impact in god knows how long. “Lady Bird” isn’t the best feel-good movie of late (“La La Land”), nor is it even the best Saoirse Ronan coming of age film (“Brooklyn”).

Pete – GET OUT

There just wasn’t any other movie this year that left a stronger impression than “Get Out.” Maybe it doesn’t fit your typical Best Pic mold, but pretty defies genre altogether. It was the most shocking and important movie of the year, and as soon as I left the theater I knew I had to talk about it and see it again ASAP. The additional small details and bits of foreshadowing that you pick up on a rewatch make it even better the second time around.

Best non-nominee:

DJ – ONLY THE BRAVE

Pete – WIND RIVER

 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
  • Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Will win: 

DJ – DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, PHANTOM THREAD

Pete – DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, PHANTOM THREAD

Should win: 

DJ – DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, PHANTOM THREAD

He will, right? I’ll fucking lose my mind if anyone else does because this should be the runaway win of the year. Oldman looked like somebody else? Chalamet cried? Eat a butt, dummies. The character of Reynolds Woodcock and the performance of Day-Lewis were unparalleled. This one’s too easy. It’s entirely too easy.

Pete – DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, PHANTOM THREAD

Oldman was my original pick for “Will win” because everyone is cumming their dicks off over him as Churchill but, honestly, fuck “Darkest Hour.” Daniel Day-Lewis was perfect (and so very handsome) in “Phantom Thread.” Plus, you’re going to deny that guy an Oscar in his final role? I dare you.

Best non-nominee:

DJ – KENNETH BRANAGH, MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS

Pete – JAMES FRANCO, THE DISASTER ARTIST

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

  • Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
  • Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
  • Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
  • Meryl Streep, The Post

Will win: 

DJ – SAOIRSE RONAN, LADY BIRD

Pete -FRANCES McDORMAND, THREE BILLBOARDS

Should win: 

DJ – FRANCES McDORMAND, THREE BILLBOARDS

This is a two-person race between McDormand and Ronan, the latter of whom already somehow feels overdue. I loved her in “Lady Bird” like I’ve loved her in everything, but McDormand was equal parts heartbreaking and terrifying in “Three Billboards.”

Pete -FRANCES McDORMAND, THREE BILLBOARDS

For all my criticisms of “Three Billboards,” it was undoubtedly a movie with some great performances. McDormand was so perfectly irritable and raw in the lead role.

Best non-nominee:

DJ – ALLISON WILLIAMS, GET OUT

Pete – BROOKLYNN PRINCE, THE FLORIDA PROJECT

 

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will win: 

DJ – SAM ROCKWELL, THREE BILLBOARDS

Pete – SAM ROCKWELL, THREE BILLBOARDS

Should win: 

DJ – WOODY HARRELSON, THREE BILLBOARDS

This one was a rare disagreement for me and the P Man (Pete). I think Harrelson was better and more important to “Three Billboards” than Rockwell. One was a vehicle to show how far the main character was willing to go; the other was the only thing resembling a good person or voice of reason in a positively fucked movie. I think it takes more to be the latter.

Pete -WILLEM DAFOE, THE FLORIDA PROJECT

I likely would have given it to Michael Stuhlbarg if he were nominated (for the couch scene in “Call Me By Your Name” alone) but I loved Dafoe in “The Florida Project.” He did a great job bringing humanity and empathy to a character in an impossibly frustrating and draining situation, and he was able to do it a quiet, unassuming way that fit in with a production of that scale.

Best non-nominee:

DJ – MICHAEL STUHLBARG, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

Pete – MICHAEL STUHLBARG, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (Close second: Barry Keoghan, The Killing of a Sacred Deer)

 

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  • Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
  • Allison Janney, I, Tonya
  • Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
  • Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
  • Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water 

Will win: 

DJ – LAURIE METCALF, LADY BIRD

Pete – OCTAVIA SPENCER, THE SHAPE OF WATER

Should win: 

DJ – LAURIE METCALF, LADY BIRD

Really tough year to be as awesome as Allison Janney was in “I, Tonya.” She ruled, but Metcalf gave the better performance as a more accessible mom.

Pete -LAURIE METCALF, LADY BIRD

I’m still sticking to my guns and saying Holly Hunter should win this, but — of those actually nominated — Metcalf was the best. Both were able to deliver outstandingly genuine portrayals of moms who were somehow both very rude and very warm.

Best non-nominee:

DJ – HOLLY HUNTER, THE BIG SICK

Pete -HOLLY HUNTER, THE BIG SICK

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Blade Runner 2049
  • Darkest Hour
  • Dunkirk
  • Mudbound
  • The Shape of Water

Will win: 

DJ – BLADE RUNNER 2049

Pete – THE SHAPE OF WATER

Should win: 

DJ – DUNKIRK

I’ll be honest: I’ve got no clue what will/is supposed to win this, but I do know that Those. Ships. Were. Real.

Pete – THE SHAPE OF WATER

Between the cinematography and production design on The Shape of Water, it felt like its own world — a world in which it’s totally normal and acceptable for a human to fuck a fish.

 

DIRECTING 

  • Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
  • Get Out, Jordan Peele
  • Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
  • Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
  • The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro

Will win: 

DJ – LADY BIRD, GRETA GERWIG

Pete – THE SHAPE OF WATER, GUILLERMO DEL TORO

Should win: 

DJ – PHANTOM THREAD, PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON

Paul Thomas Anderson made both Reynolds Woodcock and a short film with Haim in a very short span of time. Legend.

Pete – GET OUT, JORDAN PEELE

A year ago I couldn’t have even imagined Jordan Peele doing something Oscar-worthy outside of comedy, and yet he was able to construct the best and most culturally impactful movie of 2018. That’s good enough for me.

 

EDITING

  • Baby Driver
  • Dunkirk
  • I, Tonya
  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will win: 

DJ – BABY DRIVER

Pete – BABY DRIVER

Should win: 

DJ – BABY DRIVER

Wish they could have edited it to not have Jon Hamm come back to life so many times, but can’t have everything!

Pete – BABY DRIVER

Wish they could have edited it to not have Kevin Spacey in the movie, but can’t have everything!

 

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE) 

  • Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
  • Phantom Thread, Jonny Greenwood
  • The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi, John Williams
  • Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, Carter Burwell

Will win: 

DJ – THE SHAPE OF WATER, ALEXANDRE DESPLAT

Pete – THE SHAPE OF WATER, ALEXANDRE DESPLAT

Should win: 

DJ – PHANTOM THREAD, JONNY GREENWOOD

That main theme of “Phantom Thread” is sooooo good. Give Paul Thomas Anderson another Oscar just for using it as much as he did.

Pete – PHANTOM THREAD, JONNY GREENWOOD

An awesome score that manages to frequently be at the forefront yet not be overbearing. Not enough Haim for my liking, though.

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